Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions
  • Partnerships
    • Strategic Partnership
    • Continuity & Succession
  • Resources
    • Financial Planning
    • Investment Management
    • Practice Management
    • Continuity & Succession Planning
    • Operations Management
    • Compliance
  • Team
  • Insights
    • Articles
    • Podcasts
  • Advisor Center
Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions
  • Partnerships
    • Strategic Partnership
    • Continuity & Succession
  • Resources
    • Financial Planning
    • Investment Management
    • Practice Management
    • Continuity & Succession Planning
    • Operations Management
    • Compliance
  • Team
  • Insights
    • Articles
    • Podcasts
  • Advisor Center
Oct 04

Trending towards recession, labor keeps weakening

  • October 4, 2022
  • CWM Investment Team
  • Richard Barrett

One of the commonly quoted measures of a recession is the ISM Manufacturing data going below a reading of 50. >50 means economic expansion and <50 means economic contraction. Yesterday’s ISM data was soft, coming in at a reading of 50.9 vs. an estimate of 52 and a prior month reading of 52.8. The means the US economy is growing but definitively slowing.

New manufacturing orders were weak, manufacturing prices are slowing, and manufacturing employment just jammed on the brakes – down 5.5 from the prior month and now clearly in contraction territory.

In the coming months, bad news with regards to labor will translate into good news for the markets. A slowing labor market will be strangely good and will be the impetus for the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. What the market really is looking for is a big negative reading on job growth across the board. That might be a month or two away but it’s not 6 months away. When that happens, the Fed will “pause”…..and “pause” with regards to rate policy will mean “go” for the markets.

 

Source:  JonesTrading as of October 4, 2022

Richard Barrett
Chief Investment Officer


Congress Wealth Management LLC (“Congress”) is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. For additional information, please visit our website at congresswealth.com or visit the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov by searching with Congress’ CRD #310873.

This note is provided for informational purposes only. Congress believes this information to be accurate and reliable but does not warrant it as to completeness or accuracy. This note may include candid statements, opinions and/or forecasts, including those regarding investment strategies and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee that such statements, opinions and/or forecasts will prove to be correct. All such expressions of opinions or forecasts are subject to change without notice. Any projections, targets or estimates are forward looking statements and are based on Congress’ research, analysis, and assumption. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. This note is not a complete analysis of all material facts respecting any issuer, industry or security or of your investment objectives, parameters, needs or financial situation, and therefore is not a sufficient basis alone on which to base an investment decision. Clients should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed or recommended in this note. No portion of this note is to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell a security or the provision of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Investing entails the risk of loss of principal.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • E-Mail

Related Posts

  • I never forget an anniversaryMarch 23, 2023
  • Yields spike so the Fed will hike…and Fed chair Powell better throw a strikeMarch 22, 2023
  • “March Madness”March 21, 2023
  • The demise of SVB and thoughts on where we go from hereMarch 13, 2023

Comments are closed.

Receive our newsletter

Subscribe

Advisor Solutions Team

Advisor Solutions Team focuses on the independent and breakaway financial advisor, addressing common strategic and managerial issues associated with building a profitable practice.

CWM Investment Team

Provides commentary on their view regarding trends in the markets.

Podcast "For Advisors"

Designed and built just for independent advisors with AUM between $20 – $300M to help them make good management decisions with information they need to run their practices.


Articles & Podcasts

  • Advisor Solutions Team (7)
  • CWM Investment Team (117)
  • Podcasts (11)

This podcast is designed and built just for independent advisors with AUM between $20 – $300M to help them make good management decisions with information they need to run their practices. This is the only podcast built specifically for advisors who feel that acting in the client’s best interest is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of client-centric business, client care, and ethical responsibility.

Tags

Carl Noble Compliance Financial Advisors Gary Seifrit Industry Trends Investments Richard Barrett Ryan Carroll Sauro Locatelli Sean Dillon Senior Citizens

Archives

Office headquarters

155 Seaport Blvd
Boston, MA 02210
Phone: (617) 428-7600 Fax: (617) 428-7699

Form ADV for Congress Wealth Management
Form CRS
Legal Disclaimers
Privacy Policy

Follow us

  • linkedin

Contact us via email

    © Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions
    Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions (CWAS) is a division of Congress Wealth Management, LLC (CWM), which is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. For additional information, please visit the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website by searching with CWM's CRD #310873. Investment Advisory services are offered and rendered through CWM. CWM acquired Pinnacle Advisory Group, Inc. (Pinnacle) on April 30, 2021.