Pardon the reference to the great Earth, Wind and Fire lyrics but yesterday’s performance by Fed chair Powell was uber hawkish, lots of tough talk about rates and inflation and... read more →
As markets brace for the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow 2pm EST (+75bps overwhelming consensus…it’s already priced in and known), economic demand continues to be destroyed and inflation expectations are falling. Gold... read more →
Tuesday’s market meltdown of -4% off a bad CPI print warrants both comment and context. Here goes. Since 1950, the market has gone down -4% in a single day 53 times. That’s... read more →
Economic demand destruction well underway The excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2021 led to a demand spike that resulted in an inflation spike. Financial conditions have been getting tighter over... read more →
A few quick takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Non-farm payroll for August 2022 grew by +315,000, right in line with the +318,000 estimate. It’s actually an aberration that it... read more →
Over the past 8 months, financial conditions have tightened a lot. Interest rates higher, mortgage rates higher, and a stronger USD are all symptomatic of tighter financial conditions. The Fed sees... read more →
The Fed convenes later this week at Jackson Hole for their annual meeting/retreat/gathering/etc. Agenda looks like Wednesday night dinner, Thursday all day academic session on economic white papers, and Fed... read more →
Higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions are clearly now impacting demand. It took 3-4 months to take effect, but the combination of those two things is doing what the... read more →
While the excessive money printing and fiscal stimulus of 2021 is the primary cause of above trend/pronounced inflation, it’s the Fed’s lack of action in early 2022 with regards to... read more →
When we quote investor “sentiment”, there’s three big data points we look at: the put/call ratio, the bull/bear ratio, and what’s going on within the Bank of America Fund Managers... read more →