Over the course of the past 24hrs, odds have dramatically increased that the Fed will hike by +25bps at 2pm today. 2y UST yields two weeks ago were 5.2%. Those... read more →
The events of the past 10 days – including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the extraordinary measures enacted by the Fed to protect/quasi guarantee deposits of any shape... read more →
The death of the nation’s 16th largest bank was both swift and shocking and the events of the past few days as it relates to the bank run that went... read more →
Retail sales remain strong, unemployment claims remain low, and broadly speaking economic growth as measured by consumption and GDP is solid. That’s the good news. The bad news is that... read more →
Three years ago, this week, the world was hit by the onset of the COVID pandemic. Levels of serious illness started to spike and global markets recoiled accordingly. That truly... read more →
Supply and demand drives inflation, including the supply and demand of money itself. Why did inflation spike in early 2022? Because we had record money supply growth in BOTH 2020... read more →
Yesterday’s CPI inflation data notes an economy that still has elevated inflation, but the trajectory of inflation is cooling and cooling very quickly. Core CPI excluding shelter costs was up... read more →
We talk often/always/incessantly about “cycles”. Market cycles are driven by the broad availability and cost of money. Market cycles are driven by economic growth and contraction. They are driven by... read more →
We continue to believe that the likelihood of a recession in 2023 is someplace between absolutely certain and virtually guaranteed. Our recession model has been signaling that for a while... read more →
Financial assets performance Jan 2023 v Jan 2022 – what a difference a year makes, especially after the fastest rate hiking cycle in the history of the Fed. We’re onto... read more →
