At two meetings I was in yesterday the topic of the current “narrow rally” was brought up. “Narrow rally” means just a few mega cap stocks going up a lot... read more →
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We have discussed before many times that money supply growth drives... read more →
There are three consensus views I see right now in the market: US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate is a mess and will experience permanent loss/impairment The 4200... read more →
Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair. Not really a surprise that after getting way behind inflation in late 2021/most of... read more →
As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always seems to become. Inflation isn’t the problem it was six... read more →
The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and overall financial conditions have tightened dramatically. We think we’re headed... read more →
“Money makes the world go ‘round - Still don’t nothing move but the money” – Cabaret the Musical (1990s revival) Money – and the growth of money supply – influences... read more →
The combination of tighter financial conditions, higher interest rates, a slowing economy AND shrinking deposits due to a banking crisis (SVB, Signature Bank, FRC next ?) is now manifesting itself... read more →
Markets have shown to advance and move forward in the face of a “wall of worry”. Walls of Worry come in many forms, but most often they look like excessive... read more →
2020 was about COVID and the scientific search for a vaccine. 2021 was about quasi-reopening of the global economy and too much fiscal and monetary stimulus here in the USA... read more →