In basketball, the “triple threat” position is a stance where the player can either pass, shoot, or dribble. It’s a very athletic stance that creates options. It’s the absolute cornerstone... read more →
Not a newsflash, but November 2023 was a monster month in terms of returns for most major asset classes. SP500 +9.13% for November, Barclays Aggregate Bond Index +4.55%. Massive, outsized... read more →
Over the next couple of weeks, our Investment Team will be rolling out and sharing our thoughts on more longer-term market themes. Quarterly earnings data, monthly non-farm payroll numbers, and... read more →
Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs. inflation the US economy has held up very, very while. ... read more →
Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs. inflation the US economy has held up very, very while. ... read more →
We here at CWM practice and preach “cycle investing” – a time honored tradition that reflects our belief that markets and economies have defined “cycles” and that those cycles are... read more →
Composite PMI readings come out each month and represent a monthly snapshot on the health of the manufacturing and service economies. A reading above 50 is considered good and the... read more →
We are one week into the 3Q23 the earnings reporting season. 64 companies have reported so far, 13% of the SP500 and 30% of those reporting to date have been... read more →
If the Fed doesn’t hike again, we likely have a mild recession (“soft landing”). If they do hike again, the probability grows significantly/exponentially that the landing is a lot less... read more →
In the past three months, the yield on long-dated UST has increased by about +100bps. The front end of the yield curve has barely budged but yields on 10y-30y UST... read more →