As expected, our beloved elected officials waited until the very last moment and then cut a deal that does little..

It seems like forever since we started talking about recession. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries (a.k.a. the..

This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with..

The Conference Board’s Survey of Consumer Confidence showed that consumers have grown even more pessimistic towards the stock market as..

At two meetings I was in yesterday the topic of the current “narrow rally” was brought up.  “Narrow rally” means..

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We..

There are three consensus views I see right now in the market:  US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate..

With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing..

Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair.  Not really a surprise..

As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always..

Tomorrow brings the latest Federal Reserve decision, with another quarter-point hike viewed as a slam dunk – current market pricing..

The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and..

“Money makes the world go ‘round – Still don’t nothing move but the money” – Cabaret the Musical (1990s revival)..

More and more evidence is now pointing to the much-anticipated recession beginning to materialize over the next few months. Last..

We hear this question a lot; and most of the time it is a foregone conclusion that we will revisit..

The combination of tighter financial conditions, higher interest rates, a slowing economy AND shrinking deposits due to a banking crisis..

This morning brought the latest read on inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March.  Overall,..

Markets have shown to advance and move forward in the face of a “wall of worry”.  Walls of Worry come..

Q1 2023 earnings reporting season is officially starting next week. As usual, financials will be the first to take center..

2020 was about COVID and the scientific search for a vaccine.  2021 was about quasi-reopening of the global economy and..

Today marks the 3-year anniversary of the COVID market low:  March 23, 2020. Three years ago today, mankind, civilization and..

Over the course of the past 24hrs, odds have dramatically increased that the Fed will hike by +25bps at 2pm..

The events of the past 10 days – including the collapse of Silicon  Valley Bank and the extraordinary measures enacted..

There is certainly a lot happening in the financial markets right now. It is more important than ever during times..

The death of the nation’s 16th largest bank was both swift and shocking and the events of the past few..

As much as Fed Chair Jerome Powell may claim that the Fed is not trying to push the economy into..

Retail sales remain strong, unemployment claims remain low, and broadly speaking economic growth as measured by consumption and GDP is..

With 475 companies (96% of market capitalization) of the S&P 500 index having reported 4Q 2022 results, the earnings season..

Three years ago, this week, the world was hit by the onset of the COVID pandemic.  Levels of serious illness..

Supply and demand drives inflation, including the supply and demand of money itself.  Why did inflation spike in early 2022? ..

With fears of oncoming recession still swirling, the corporate bond market continues to mostly mimic a big shoulder-shrug about that..

Yesterday’s CPI inflation data notes an economy that still has elevated inflation, but the trajectory of inflation is cooling and..

We talk often/always/incessantly about “cycles”.  Market cycles are driven by the broad availability and cost of money. Market cycles are..

Recession, earnings, the Fed, ongoing war, housing concerns, debt ceiling, over-valuation…. The gloom can crush you. Don’t listen to it...

We continue to believe that the likelihood of a recession in 2023 is someplace between absolutely certain and virtually guaranteed...

Financial assets performance Jan 2023 v Jan 2022 – what a difference a year makes, especially after the fastest rate..

The long-term growth in money supply (M2) and the long-term level of inflation (CPI) do track together. Money supply over..

In 2022, investors were hyper focused on inflation and the Fed, so much so that bad news (on the economy)..

We’ve been talking about weak investor sentiment now dating back to last spring AFTER inflation started rippin’, AFTER the Fed..

As our Sean Dillon has been saying for a while now, underlying market technicals have dramatically improved since late last..

Another theme we expect to play out in 2023, and possibly beyond, is the outperformance of value stocks over growth..

Three things to note on non-USA stocks: We continue to believe that what will work coming out of this extended..

One of the major stories – if not THE major story – for the capital markets during 2022 was the..

The headline jobs number this morning was +223K which was roughly in line with the +200K estimate. Revisions to prior..

One of the silver linings of the type of volatility that’s occurred over the past year is that it also..

We’ll be putting out a list this week of our major investment themes for 2023 and beyond. Theme #1 is..

Here’s the report card on capital market asset classes for 2022: What worked: very, very little. Oil (either flavor, brent..

Whenever Fed chair Powell goes in front of a microphone or a podium, I get slightly nauseous. Powell never misses..

The broad market backdrop continues to play out as we await the Fed’s 50bps rate hike on Wednesday. Inflation is..

Market convention is to quote the shape of the UST yield curve by looking at 10Y UST v 2Y UST...

The S&P 500 is currently down roughly 16% so far this year, which would make 2022 its worst calendar year..

A better-than-expected jobs report this morning is sadly not what the market was/is looking for. Tough to describe this labor..

Yesterday’s reaction to dovish comments from Fed chair Powell was most certainly welcomed by the markets. Big positive moves in..

The 200-day moving average (ma) is no silver bullet; but as we reflect on price movement over the last few..

Huge week for economic data – with all eyes pointing towards Friday’s labor report. Consensus estimates are calling for +200,000..

Over the past month or so, we’ve survived 3Q22 earnings season and a fairly major Fed announcement. Not small things..

Similar to last week’s CPI inflation data, this morning’s PPI inflation (producer price index) data noted similar softness. Markets like..

How historic was the move in equities yesterday? The chart below shows the distribution of returns for the S&P 500..

This morning’s long-awaited CPI inflation data came in softer than expected and the market loves it. SP500 futures were positive..

I want to talk about market cycles and just how different and unusual the current one is. My apologies for..

The rarest thing of all: today we had both a total lunar eclipse (technically it was a “blood moon”) and..

As of Friday, November 4th 83.5% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings. How did the quarter go, and..

Tough to say anything other than this morning’s labor report is indicative of a continued strong labor market and a..

Perhaps one way to try and digest yesterday’s Fed announcement and the subsequent Powell press conference is to quote President..

The good news is that October 2022 just registered the best monthly returns for the DJIA since 1976. The DJIA..

Today is Halloween, and so far it’s been a very spooky year for investors. Inflation, rate hikes, geopolitical conflict and..

The market has done a reasonably good job this week shaking off some big, large cap tech earnings misses. Weak..

Inter-market relationships have been much more important for stocks than in past years. I have been highlighting in meetings, and..

Despite overwhelmingly bearish investor sentiment (or perhaps because of it), the S&P 500 index managed to rally 4.75% last week..

Roughly 20% of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported Q3 results as of this morning. So far, the..

While the Fed continues to maintain its focus squarely on slowing inflation and employment, in the meantime it’s the housing..

Lots of bank earnings the past few days. I don’t see many surprises so far in what has been released:  M&A..

When positioning is historically bearish you get reversal days like we saw yesterday. Intraday, the S&P 500 moved from a..

Last Friday’s strong payroll report noted a robust and healthy labor market – which is the last thing the market..

This morning’s non-farm payroll report might have noted the weakest gain since April 2021 but there’s not enough damage in..

We talk a lot about breadth because ‘participation’ to the upside is vital for a sustained move higher. We want..

Yesterday’s job openings (JOLTs) data notes a weakening in the labor market. Tighter financial conditions clearly starting to impact labor demand. Job..

One of the commonly quoted measures of a recession is the ISM Manufacturing data going below a reading of 50. >50..

As we have discussed in prior communications, the Fed has been aggressively hiking interest rates in order to slow down..

Another quarter is soon drawing to a close and investors will once again turn their focus to the latest corporate..

Fed chair Powell’s folly continues.  It’s quite the body of work. First problem was doing nothing in 1Q22 as inflation was..

Pardon the reference to the great Earth, Wind and Fire lyrics but yesterday’s performance by Fed chair Powell was uber..

As markets brace for the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow 2pm EST (+75bps overwhelming consensus…it’s already priced in and known), economic..

The economic data released over the last couple of months has painted a picture of an economy that is holding..

Tuesday’s market meltdown of -4% off a bad CPI print warrants both comment and context. Here goes. Since 1950, the market..

Economic demand destruction well underway The excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2021 led to a demand spike that resulted..

A few quick takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Non-farm payroll for August 2022 grew by +315,000, right in line..

It’s a fabulous Tuesday morning. Schools in Maryland have opened, and the weather is starting to moderate. Now, we need..

Over the past 8 months, financial conditions have tightened a lot. Interest rates higher, mortgage rates higher, and a stronger..

The Fed convenes later this week at Jackson Hole for their annual meeting/retreat/gathering/etc. Agenda looks like Wednesday night dinner, Thursday..

Higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions are clearly now impacting demand.  It took 3-4 months to take effect, but..

While the excessive money printing and fiscal stimulus of 2021 is the primary cause of above trend/pronounced inflation, it’s the..

Succession planning is an important piece of practice management for independent advisors, and it is an issue many advisors are..

When we quote investor “sentiment”, there’s three big data points we look at: the put/call ratio, the bull/bear ratio, and..

The normally reliable US bond market is sending conflicting signals at the moment, adding to the confusion about whether the..

Number #1 question being asked now sounds like this: “Why should I invest now?” The Fed is raising rates, recession..

Energy outperformance has cooled recently, which was to be expected after an historic run of outperformance from January to June...

Tougher/tighter financial conditions and an aggressive Fed still playing from behind with regards to rates and inflation are purposefully destroying..

The S&P 500 index is roughly halfway through reporting season for 2Q results, with 282 companies out of 500 having..

We have been talking about tighter financials conditions (higher rates, higher yields, tougher lending, etc.) and the theme of demand..

This morning’s GDP report noted contraction for the second quarter in a row. We can debate inventory builds and trade..

The bond market already has hiked rates to 3%. The Fed is playing catch up but will get there in..

It is hard to believe it has already been more than a year since Congress Wealth Management (“Congress”) acquired Pinnacle..

Volatility fatigue led to extreme weak investor sentiment which has now finally translated in defensive portfolio positioning. Actions speak louder..

There’s no sugarcoating it – it’s been a very rough week for all of the peak inflationists who’ve been arguing..

The demise of meme stocks, day trading, and Robinhood (HOOD) Excess money supply growth led to excess inflation which led..

The pain inflicted on high quality, long duration bonds Between March 2020 and December 2021, the US produced about $8..

New WebsiteWhat does behind the curve look like? The Federal Reserve is about to tighten monetary policy, i.e., raise rates,..

Higher prices have led to tighter financial conditions. Mortgage rates up a lot, gasoline prices up a lot, UST yields higher,..

As the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, the once red-hot housing market is starting to sputter. Based..

The Fed can’t do anything about the supply of goods and services but does control the creation and destruction of..

Elevated inflation and a Fed that is way too far behind the curve is where we find ourselves today. The Fed..

There are a wide range of investment outsourcing options available to advisors these days. Undoubtedly, the right one is out..

It seems like no one is talking about the yield curve any more. During the last week of March, when..

Economist Milton Friedman and I have many things in common,. We both believe that inflation is driven by the excess..

A few takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Payroll employment with revisions increased +368k……still hot Household employment increased +320k……still hot..

Corporates insiders have an unusually good track record of timing their personal buys/sells. There’s a process around their trades and..

Over the past several months we have talked often about the root cause of the current inflationary environment. We can argue..

Stocks may not be cheap but they are definitely not expensive anymore. Great companies are still growing earnings; in fact,..

Over the last few turbulent months, we have highlighted a few individual sentiment indicators as they reached extreme bearish levels..

Last week’s Consumer Price Index inflation data noted elevated levels of inflation but also some signs that inflation may be..

There have only been 12x in the past 60 years in which greater than 93% of the trading volume of..

Yesterday afternoon big risk rally was a pleasant break. The market came into Powell’s press conference oversold, looking for a reason..

In March 2009, US unemployment rate was around 10%, the global credit markets were completely frozen, high yield bond defaults..

We are entering the busiest days of 1Q reporting season for companies in the S&P 500 index. While only 212..

Heather Rhoades is Chairman of Cummings & Lockwood’s Private Clients Group and is Partner in Charge of the West Hartford..

At the beginning of April, the 10-2 year yield curve briefly inverted, creating widespread hysteria in the financial media. However,..

Market Last week’s AAII Bull/Bear reading of just 15.8 was the LOWEST reading since 1992.  Bears greatly outnumber Bulls.  A lower reading..

Earnings reporting season for Q1 2022 is about to kick off. As usual, the first week will be dominated by..

Markets haven’t experienced higher inflation and higher yields in a really long time, but that’s the world we find ourselves..

The NDR Crowd Sentiment poll below measures market based and survey-based sentiment indicators to gauge if investors are optimistic or..

In this episode we are joined by Bill Loehning of Thornburg Investment Management who shares his experiences working with both..

For nearly 40 years, Jeff Levine has been more than an accountant to his clients.  Jeff and his partner built..

At about 1:32 PM EST on Tuesday, the widely-followed spread between 10-year and 2-year treasury yields (a.k.a. the yield curve)..

2022 is certainly off to an inauspicious start.  Spring hasn’t even fully sprung yet investors’ nerves are already frayed thanks..

There are many ways to divide different demographics to compare and contrast. One way that has been in vogue in..

Chris Winn is founder of AdvisorAssist and has over 23 years of investment management industry experience with a focus on..

While global financial markets are reeling from the latest geopolitical events in Eastern Europe, earnings season for Q4 2021 is..

Here’s a fairly comprehensive list of geopolitical events dating back +80y. Consistent with last week’s TalkingPoints – What do geopolitical..

Sound asset allocation is the critical foundation for every successful investment portfolio. We at CWM have always preached the need to..

Fears of a major conflict between Russia and Ukraine/NATO intensified over the past week as White House officials urged all..

With 56% of companies (worth 73% of market capitalization) of the S&P 500 index having reported results for Q4 2021,..

The questions I am getting from clients now are focused almost entirely on three specific things:  (1) the equity market..

From January 4th, the S&P 500 has fallen close to 10%. A monthly decline of this magnitude has occurred 15..

The American population continues to age, and more and more baby boomers are entering their twilight years. Every day, 10,000..

Our Chief Compliance Officer has put together a summary of the fiduciary advice exemption PTE 2020-02 for our own Wealth..

The blue line, green line, purple line, and red line below all say that midterm election years get more and..

I have four predictions for 2022 – here goes: The Fed is going to raise interest rates. Maybe the most meaningless..

Carl Noble, Senior Vice President of Investments and Sauro Locatelli, Director of Quantitative Research, of Congress Wealth Management join us..

Making the decision to breakaway from a wirehouse or larger firm can be a daunting one. There are many things..

Mergers and acquisitions are a hot topic in the trade press these days. What then are the causes and formative..

Despite advisor’s best efforts to the contrary, many amateur investors insist on trying some variation of “timing the market” philosophy..

Helping military and federal government families is a special niche, one that requires some specialized knowledge and a level of..

Have referrals started to dry up, is your pipeline of new business getting shorter and shorter, is it taking you..

Bernie Kiely, highly respected and renowned advisor tells you how it is in the world of advisory practice and how..