Tomorrow brings the latest Federal Reserve decision, with another quarter-point hike viewed as a slam dunk – current market pricing shows a 93% probability of that outcome. That would bring... read more →
The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and overall financial conditions have tightened dramatically. We think we’re headed... read more →
“Money makes the world go ‘round - Still don’t nothing move but the money” – Cabaret the Musical (1990s revival) Money – and the growth of money supply – influences... read more →
More and more evidence is now pointing to the much-anticipated recession beginning to materialize over the next few months. Last Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed released its Philly Fed Manufacturing Index,... read more →
We hear this question a lot; and most of the time it is a foregone conclusion that we will revisit the 2022 stock market lows. War, recession, the Fed, regional... read more →
The combination of tighter financial conditions, higher interest rates, a slowing economy AND shrinking deposits due to a banking crisis (SVB, Signature Bank, FRC next ?) is now manifesting itself... read more →
This morning brought the latest read on inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Overall, it was mostly in-line with expectations with further signs of... read more →
Markets have shown to advance and move forward in the face of a “wall of worry”. Walls of Worry come in many forms, but most often they look like excessive... read more →
Q1 2023 earnings reporting season is officially starting next week. As usual, financials will be the first to take center stage, with none other than First Republic kicking things off... read more →
2020 was about COVID and the scientific search for a vaccine. 2021 was about quasi-reopening of the global economy and too much fiscal and monetary stimulus here in the USA... read more →