In the past three months, the yield on long-dated UST has increased by about +100bps. The front end of the yield curve has barely budged but yields on 10y-30y UST... read more →
As we enter Q4, the economy continues to have significant momentum behind it. A consensus of economist estimates the economy should have grown by 3% in Q3. Meanwhile, the Atlanta... read more →
Impossible to ignore the material move higher in 10y UST yields. 4.73% on the 10y UST is its highest level since late 2007. Three take-ways from me on this: The... read more →
Lots of attention this morning to CPI inflation headlines. Energy running hot on low inventory levels, used cars continue to drift lower in price, shelter costs a mixed bag. IGNORE ALL... read more →
It’s this week’s inflation data that is probably the headline to focus on, if one is into focusing on headlines. The bond market is currently saying the chances of a... read more →
Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!! LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 - Temporary job growth rolling over: A deeper dive into last... read more →
Fed chair Powell performed roughly “as expected” at Jackson Hole on Friday. Lots of progress to date against inflation. Inflation is going down, but it remains elevated. The path forward... read more →
Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole. It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets. I expect Powell to be his normal hawkish self with... read more →
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its recent peak on 7/31. Corrections of this sort have been... read more →
As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this... read more →