Higher prices have led to tighter financial conditions. Mortgage rates up a lot, gasoline prices up a lot, UST yields higher, credit spreads wider. For the past five months, both the bond... read more →
As the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, the once red-hot housing market is starting to sputter. Based on data released this morning, only 5.41 million existing homes... read more →
The Fed can’t do anything about the supply of goods and services but does control the creation and destruction of economic demand. In 2020 and 2021 the Fed was creating... read more →
Elevated inflation and a Fed that is way too far behind the curve is where we find ourselves today. The Fed most likely will hike rates 75bps on Wednesday – it’s... read more →
There are a wide range of investment outsourcing options available to advisors these days. Undoubtedly, the right one is out there for you and your clients. But why outsource? Findings... read more →
It seems like no one is talking about the yield curve any more. During the last week of March, when the 10-2 year treasury spread inverted very briefly, roughly 3,800... read more →
Economist Milton Friedman and I have many things in common,. We both believe that inflation is driven by the excess supply of money. More dollars chasing the same amount of... read more →
A few takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Payroll employment with revisions increased +368k……still hotHousehold employment increased +320k……still hotUnemployment rate held at 3.6%…..near generational lows Nothing in this data is... read more →
Corporates insiders have an unusually good track record of timing their personal buys/sells. There’s a process around their trades and they do have to jump thru regulatory hoops and various... read more →
Over the past several months we have talked often about the root cause of the current inflationary environment. We can argue at the fringe about supply constraints etc. but at the... read more →