In the past three months, the yield on long-dated UST has increased by about +100bps. The front end of the yield curve has barely budged but yields on 10y-30y UST debt are up and up sharply. The Fed controls the front end of the yield curve, but the market controls... read more →
Oct
05
As we enter Q4, the economy continues to have significant momentum behind it. A consensus of economist estimates the economy should have grown by 3% in Q3. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model’s current reading of 4.9% suggests there may be upside risk to that forecast. However, even against such... read more →
Aug
23
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its recent peak on 7/31. Corrections of this sort have been a remarkably frequent occurrence in the history of the stock market. Since January 1928, the S&P 500 index has suffered... read more →
Aug
18
As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this is happening right after excessive optimism once again gripped the market. Sentiment was abysmal in October of 2022 and close... read more →