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Dec 05
Nov 28
Nov 20

L-E-I says we’re in R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N

Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs. inflation the US economy has held up very, very while.  Double checking our model here against a well-proven external source:  the Senior Lending Officer Opinion Survey. The survey of leading... read more →
Nov 15

The Non-Magnificent 493

A lot of ink is being spilled writing about the Magnificent 7, the seven largest stocks by market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. That is not surprising given the rollercoaster ride they have been on over the last two years. After suffering a nearly 40% drawdown from the S&P... read more →
Nov 14

Markets Like Lower Inflation

The latest CPI inflation report was just released this morning, and so far it’s put markets in a very good mood.  The details were certainly encouraging with headline inflation flat month over month, and up only 3.2% year over year.  Core CPI was only 0.2% higher on the month and... read more →
Nov 10

Key Takeaways from Q3 Earnings Season

With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, the numbers for Q3 earnings season are effectively in. Here are the main takeaways: Results were stronger than expected.On September 30th, before reporting kicked off, Q3 earnings were expected to decline by -0.3% compared to the... read more →
Nov 09

The Market Is Getting Thrusty

It has been a great two weeks for the S&P 500. The market closed higher in each of the last 8 sessions, which lifted the index back above key support at 4150/4200, and back above the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. This move higher produced some short term... read more →
Nov 07

SLOOS singing the blues as recession looms

Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs. inflation the US economy has held up very, very while.  Double checking our model here against a well-proven external source:  the Senior Lending Officer Opinion Survey. The Senior Lending Officer... read more →
Nov 02
Oct 31

Even the market now thinks the Fed is done hiking

We here at CWM practice and preach “cycle investing” – a time honored tradition that reflects our belief that markets and economies have defined “cycles” and that those cycles are highly influenced by monetary policy.  The available and cost of credit drives investment, earnings, job growth and the like.  Lack... read more →