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Jun 02
Jun 02

Recession Still Lies Ahead

It seems like forever since we started talking about recession. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries (a.k.a. the yield curve), one of the earliest indicators of recession, first inverted 14 months ago. In today’s world of fast-paced financials markets and news cycles, 14 months is forever. So, it... read more →
Jun 01

New S&P 500 Monthly Candle

This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with technicals being an important ‘building block’ in our investment process we thought it was important to share. And it’s all about monthly candles. Candles are a charting method to denote... read more →
May 31
May 26
May 25
May 23

Some market technicals for your Tuesday

There are three consensus views I see right now in the market:  US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate is a mess and will experience permanent loss/impairment The 4200 level on the SP500 is a HUGE technical level to watch here Sean has forgotten more about market technicals than... read more →
May 18

Q1 Earnings Update

With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing to a close. Even though this was the second consecutive quarter in which earnings declined on a year-over-year basis, results have come in much better than initially expected. As of... read more →
May 09
May 04

“Pause and Effect”

As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always seems to become.  Inflation isn’t the problem it was six months ago.  The problem is that under the Powell watch, three major financial institutions have experienced classic bank runs in... read more →