Aug
09
The normally reliable US bond market is sending conflicting signals at the moment, adding to the confusion about whether the economy is currently in a recession, heading into a recession, or will achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession. High quality bonds continue to send warning signals, with the...
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Aug
04
Number #1 question being asked now sounds like this: “Why should I invest now?” The Fed is raising rates, recession risks have surged, economic demand is being destroyed, and volatility is both substantial and persistent. All reasonable reasons why not too invest – there’s plenty of cash on the sidelines...
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Aug
04
Energy outperformance has cooled recently, which was to be expected after an historic run of outperformance from January to June. But this recent pullback was certainly not due to company fundamentals and sentiment which is under a major secular shift. Monitoring 2022 EPS growth we can see that S&P 500...
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Aug
03
Tougher/tighter financial conditions and an aggressive Fed still playing from behind with regards to rates and inflation are purposefully destroying economic demand. Last week US housing data looked softer. This week demand destruction is being felt in the labor market. Just released job openings data (JOLTS) looks soft. The summer...
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Aug
02
The S&P 500 index is roughly halfway through reporting season for 2Q results, with 282 companies out of 500 having reported results so far. Last week was the busiest week of the season, with 173 companies reporting results, including some of the largest names in the index such as Apple,...
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Jul
29
We have been talking about tighter financials conditions (higher rates, higher yields, tougher lending, etc.) and the theme of demand destruction (how the Fed is attacking inflation) for the past several months. Higher yields don’t just hit the US Treasury bond market – they hit mortgage rates too. The median...
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Jul
28
This morning’s GDP report noted contraction for the second quarter in a row. We can debate inventory builds and trade imbalances and the math underlying the calculation of real GDP, but the official number says negative real GDP growth for a 2nd quarter in a row and the textbook defines...
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Jul
26
The bond market already has hiked rates to 3%. The Fed is playing catch up but will get there in the coming 3 months. What they do from there will determine whether we get a FY23 recession. If the Fed focuses on backwards data via a rear view mirror they...
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Jul
19
It is hard to believe it has already been more than a year since Congress Wealth Management (“Congress”) acquired Pinnacle Advisor Solutions. We have been working diligently over the past year to ensure a seamless transition and integration of our team into Congress and to improve our offering to advisors....
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Jul
19
Volatility fatigue led to extreme weak investor sentiment which has now finally translated in defensive portfolio positioning. Actions speak louder than words. Fund managers surveyed have now taken up their cash balances to extremely high levels. Phenomenal counter indicator. Historical forward returns from high levels of cash are well-above average....
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