Tomorrow brings the latest Federal Reserve decision, with another quarter-point hike viewed as a slam dunk – current market pricing shows a 93% probability of that outcome. That would bring the Fed Funds rate up to a range of 5-5.25%, which is what their “dot plot” projection from the March... read more →
May
02
Apr
25
More and more evidence is now pointing to the much-anticipated recession beginning to materialize over the next few months. Last Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed released its Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a survey which measures changes in manufacturing activity covering the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware region. While this is only... read more →
Apr
19
We hear this question a lot; and most of the time it is a foregone conclusion that we will revisit the 2022 stock market lows. War, recession, the Fed, regional banks, commercial real estate… there are so many pessimistic investors out there waiting for large declines to happen. So, a... read more →
Apr
12
This morning brought the latest read on inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Overall, it was mostly in-line with expectations with further signs of disinflation, and a potentially significant development looking ahead. The good news is that the headline CPI slowed to 5%, down... read more →
Apr
05
Q1 2023 earnings reporting season is officially starting next week. As usual, financials will be the first to take center stage, with none other than First Republic kicking things off on Thursday, and the big banks following over the next few days. Bank reports always get a good deal of... read more →