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May 25
May 23

Some market technicals for your Tuesday

There are three consensus views I see right now in the market:  US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate is a mess and will experience permanent loss/impairment The 4200 level on the SP500 is a HUGE technical level to watch here Sean has forgotten more about market technicals than... read more →
May 18

Q1 Earnings Update

With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing to a close. Even though this was the second consecutive quarter in which earnings declined on a year-over-year basis, results have come in much better than initially expected. As of... read more →
May 09
May 04

“Pause and Effect”

As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always seems to become.  Inflation isn’t the problem it was six months ago.  The problem is that under the Powell watch, three major financial institutions have experienced classic bank runs in... read more →
May 02

Fed Nearly Finished With Rate Hikes

Tomorrow brings the latest Federal Reserve decision, with another quarter-point hike viewed as a slam dunk – current market pricing shows a 93% probability of that outcome.  That would bring the Fed Funds rate up to a range of 5-5.25%, which is what their “dot plot” projection from the March... read more →
Apr 28

So what happens when we get this well telegraphed recession?

The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and overall financial conditions have tightened dramatically.  We think we’re headed towards recession; the market thinks we’re heading towards recession, everyone thinks we’re headed towards recession.  The question isn’t “if, it’s... read more →
Apr 26
Apr 25

Recessionary Evidence Keeps Building

More and more evidence is now pointing to the much-anticipated recession beginning to materialize over the next few months. Last Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed released its Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a survey which measures changes in manufacturing activity covering the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware region. While this is only... read more →
Apr 19

Will We Revisit The Stock Market Lows?

We hear this question a lot; and most of the time it is a foregone conclusion that we will revisit the 2022 stock market lows. War, recession, the Fed, regional banks, commercial real estate… there are so many pessimistic investors out there waiting for large declines to happen. So, a... read more →