Oct
10
In the past three months, the yield on long-dated UST has increased by about +100bps. The front end of the yield curve has barely budged but yields on 10y-30y UST debt are up and up sharply. The Fed controls the front end of the yield curve, but the market controls...
read more →
Oct
05
As we enter Q4, the economy continues to have significant momentum behind it. A consensus of economist estimates the economy should have grown by 3% in Q3. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model’s current reading of 4.9% suggests there may be upside risk to that forecast. However, even against such...
read more →
Oct
03
Impossible to ignore the material move higher in 10y UST yields. 4.73% on the 10y UST is its highest level since late 2007. Three take-ways from me on this: The Fed doesn’t have to hike rates – the market is doing it for them for free. Higher yields and a...
read more →
Sep
13
Lots of attention this morning to CPI inflation headlines. Energy running hot on low inventory levels, used cars continue to drift lower in price, shelter costs a mixed bag. IGNORE ALL OF IT. The thing to focus on is the favorite inflation measure often quoted by Fed chair Powell: core PCE...
read more →
Sep
12
It’s this week’s inflation data that is probably the headline to focus on, if one is into focusing on headlines. The bond market is currently saying the chances of a September Fed hike are +/-10% but weak inflation data later this week will give a read into the potential of...
read more →
Sep
07
Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!! LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 - Temporary job growth rolling over: A deeper dive into last Friday’s non-farm-payroll data noted that temporary jobs appear to have peaked and are now rolling over. History says first temporary...
read more →
Aug
29
Fed chair Powell performed roughly “as expected” at Jackson Hole on Friday. Lots of progress to date against inflation. Inflation is going down, but it remains elevated. The path forward is going to be data dependent and the Fed will hike if they need to hike. Everything in life is...
read more →
Aug
24
Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole. It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets. I expect Powell to be his normal hawkish self with regards to rates and the battle versus inflation – but not too hawkish. Rates have crept higher recently (especially the...
read more →
Aug
23
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its recent peak on 7/31. Corrections of this sort have been a remarkably frequent occurrence in the history of the stock market. Since January 1928, the S&P 500 index has suffered...
read more →
Aug
18
As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this is happening right after excessive optimism once again gripped the market. Sentiment was abysmal in October of 2022 and close...
read more →
« Previous Page — Next Page »
