Nov
10
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, the numbers for Q3 earnings season are effectively in. Here are the main takeaways: Results were stronger than expected.On September 30th, before reporting kicked off, Q3 earnings were expected to decline by -0.3% compared to the...
read more →
Nov
09
It has been a great two weeks for the S&P 500. The market closed higher in each of the last 8 sessions, which lifted the index back above key support at 4150/4200, and back above the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. This move higher produced some short term...
read more →
Nov
07
Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs. inflation the US economy has held up very, very while. Double checking our model here against a well-proven external source: the Senior Lending Officer Opinion Survey. The Senior Lending Officer...
read more →
Nov
02
We are entering the final stretch of Q3 earnings reporting season. As of yesterday, 310 companies representing roughly 66% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index have already reported results. Another 121 companies are scheduled to report before the end of next week, at which point the season...
read more →
Oct
31
We here at CWM practice and preach “cycle investing” – a time honored tradition that reflects our belief that markets and economies have defined “cycles” and that those cycles are highly influenced by monetary policy. The available and cost of credit drives investment, earnings, job growth and the like. Lack...
read more →
Oct
25
Composite PMI readings come out each month and represent a monthly snapshot on the health of the manufacturing and service economies. A reading above 50 is considered good and the underlying economy is experiencing growth. A <50 reading is noting a shrinking economy as measured by output, activity, and prices.A...
read more →
Oct
20
The Federal Reserve controls the front end of the US Treasury (UST) yield curve. The market controls the long end, and the market over the last few months has been worried about supply demand imbalances; rightfully so. My Apologies, you are about to see a lot of charts.The demand side...
read more →
Oct
19
We are one week into the 3Q23 the earnings reporting season. 64 companies have reported so far, 13% of the SP500 and 30% of those reporting to date have been financials/banks. The “beat ratio” – the percentage of companies reporting better than expected earnings – is running at 75%. Granted...
read more →
Oct
18
If the Fed doesn’t hike again, we likely have a mild recession (“soft landing”). If they do hike again, the probability grows significantly/exponentially that the landing is a lot less soft = more likely hard. If the latter occurs, I think the Fed needs to CUT rates sooner rather than...
read more →
Oct
11
Q3 earnings season is about to rev up with the big US banks reporting on Friday and major Tech companies later this month. Over the past three quarters, S&P 500 earnings have contracted on a YOY basis, and current expectations for the overall index are for another marginal decline of...
read more →
« Previous Page — Next Page »
