Blog Center

Oct 20

More demand destruction in housing

While the Fed continues to maintain its focus squarely on slowing inflation and employment, in the meantime it’s the housing market bearing the brunt of their demand destruction campaign. This week brought the latest evidence of a major slowdown unfolding. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders released their... read more →
Oct 17

Let earnings season begin

Lots of bank earnings the past few days. I don’t see many surprises so far in what has been released:  M&A activity down A LOT because the Fed is in hiking mode and deal flow is temporarily nonexistent, loss reserve up some, as the banks start to front-run an early 2023... read more →
Oct 14

Yesterday was a fun day

When positioning is historically bearish you get reversal days like we saw yesterday. Intraday, the S&P 500 moved from a low of 3491 to a high of 3685 which is a 5.5% move from low to high. Adding in the fact that 3491 was a new 52 week low, this... read more →
Oct 13

Three chart Thursday

Last Friday’s strong payroll report noted a robust and healthy labor market – which is the last thing the market wants to hear. The market wants to hear weakness and while there are many signs that some components of inflation are cooling and headed lower, the labor market isn’t one... read more →
Oct 07

Decent labor report = “bad news”

This morning’s non-farm payroll report might have noted the weakest gain since April 2021 but there’s not enough damage in the labor market yet to cause the Fed to “pause”.  +263k new jobs was in line with market expectations. Another +75bps hike in Fed funds rates in early November is now... read more →
Oct 06

A great start; need more

We talk a lot about breadth because ‘participation’ to the upside is vital for a sustained move higher. We want to see the majority of troops following the general! Additionally, the start of new bull markets are marked by breadth thrusts. These thrusts are indications that the market has moved... read more →
Oct 05

Labor market weakening up…right on cue

Yesterday’s job openings (JOLTs) data notes a weakening in the labor market. Tighter financial conditions clearly starting to impact labor demand. Job openings fell by -1.1m openings, the single largest monthly decline since before the pandemic. The importance of this to the markets is that this data is both important and closely... read more →
Oct 04
Sep 30

Not all recessions are created equal

As we have discussed in prior communications, the Fed has been aggressively hiking interest rates in order to slow down the economy and get inflation under control, and it is making no mystery of the fact that it is willing to cause a recession if that is what it takes.... read more →
Sep 29

Q3 Earnings fast approaching

Another quarter is soon drawing to a close and investors will once again turn their focus to the latest corporate results. With the next round of news on inflation and the Federal Reserve still a few weeks away, earnings announcements will take center stage and help to shed light on... read more →