Nov
08
The rarest thing of all: today we had both a total lunar eclipse (technically it was a “blood moon”) and yours truly discussing election cycles and market returns. Rare or rarest? You pick. There have 19 mid term elections in the post WWII era, with all 19 noting the S&P...
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Nov
08
As of Friday, November 4th 83.5% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings. How did the quarter go, and what have we learned? Let’s look at a few charts. Companies announcing earnings for Q3 2022 had a beat rate of 73% which seems like a solid number. But as...
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Nov
04
Tough to say anything other than this morning’s labor report is indicative of a continued strong labor market and a still ok economy. +260K adds to nonfarm payrolls, led by the private sector. Average hourly earnings +.4% for the month, with both hours worked and hourly wages higher. The favorable...
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Nov
03
Perhaps one way to try and digest yesterday’s Fed announcement and the subsequent Powell press conference is to quote President Harry Truman. When speaking about his own economic advisors, Truman said he only wanted one-armed advisors, because the economists he had on staff were always saying “on one hand…but on...
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Nov
01
The good news is that October 2022 just registered the best monthly returns for the DJIA since 1976. The DJIA returned +13.95% for October 2022, besting both the SP500 (+8% for the month) and the tech heavy Nasdaq (+3.9% for the month). Best month for the Dow since 1976, when...
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Oct
31
Today is Halloween, and so far it’s been a very spooky year for investors. Inflation, rate hikes, geopolitical conflict and recession fears have all been stirred up in a witches’ brew of volatility to drive equity and bond returns lower. But could the remainder of 2022 finally hold more “treat”...
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Oct
27
The market has done a reasonably good job this week shaking off some big, large cap tech earnings misses. Weak ad trends at GOOG and MSFT and then last night’s big META whiff. AAPL and AMZON report tonite. The ability to advance when the news isn’t great is actually a...
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Oct
26
Inter-market relationships have been much more important for stocks than in past years. I have been highlighting in meetings, and most recently in the quarterly investment call, that the US Dollar is one of the key relationships for the direction of stocks. You can see it in the charts! The...
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Oct
26
Despite overwhelmingly bearish investor sentiment (or perhaps because of it), the S&P 500 index managed to rally 4.75% last week (and tacked on another 1.19% yesterday). What is perhaps even more impressive is the fact that last week was only the 4th best week for the stock market so far...
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Oct
21
Roughly 20% of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported Q3 results as of this morning. So far, the financial sector has taken center stage, with all the big banks reporting over the last week or so. Those reports were followed by investors very closely, as banks, more than...
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