Blog Center

Feb 02

The Recession of 2023

We continue to believe that the likelihood of a recession in 2023 is someplace between absolutely certain and virtually guaranteed. Our recession model has been signaling that for a while now as economic demand continues to erode due to tighter financial conditions. Tighter financial conditions (the combination of higher Fed... read more →
Feb 01

We’re onto February

Financial assets performance Jan 2023 v Jan 2022 – what a difference a year makes, especially after the fastest rate hiking cycle in the history of the Fed. We’re onto February. Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Richard BarrettChief Investment Officer Congress Wealth Management LLC (“Congress”) is a registered investment advisor with... read more →
Jan 31
Jan 26
Jan 24
Jan 19

Theme #6: Improving market technicals

As our Sean Dillon has been saying for a while now, underlying market technicals have dramatically improved since late last spring.  The underlying trend and breadth of stocks has shifted from very negative last May to quite positive today.  Technicals matter.  To put it simply:  it’s hard to get a... read more →
Jan 12

Theme #5: Value over growth

Another theme we expect to play out in 2023, and possibly beyond, is the outperformance of value stocks over growth stocks.First, let’s get definitions out of the way. As the name itself implies, growth companies are expected to grow their revenues and earnings at a faster clip than that of... read more →
Jan 11

Theme #4: Non USA stocks starting to run

Three things to note on non-USA stocks: After a long and painful period of relative underperformance, non-USA equities relative and absolute level of valuation is very attractive. A weakening US dollar + China better + emerging market equities better + US small caps better is often the path to a... read more →
Jan 10
Jan 06