We continue to believe that the likelihood of a recession in 2023 is someplace between absolutely certain and virtually guaranteed. Our recession model has been signaling that for a while now as economic demand continues to erode due to tighter financial conditions. Tighter financial conditions (the combination of higher Fed... read more →
Jan
26
In 2022, investors were hyper focused on inflation and the Fed, so much so that bad news (on the economy) was often met with a positive reaction by the stock market, in as much as it implied falling inflation and a quicker end to the Fed’s tightening campaign. As we... read more →
Jan
12
Another theme we expect to play out in 2023, and possibly beyond, is the outperformance of value stocks over growth stocks.First, let’s get definitions out of the way. As the name itself implies, growth companies are expected to grow their revenues and earnings at a faster clip than that of... read more →