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Sep 13
Sep 12
Sep 07

Three chart Thursday is here!!!

Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!!  LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 - Temporary job growth rolling over:  A deeper dive into last Friday’s non-farm-payroll data noted that temporary jobs appear to have peaked and are now rolling over.  History says first temporary... read more →
Aug 29
Aug 24

Powell’s last stand: a Jackson Hole preview

Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole.  It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets.  I expect Powell to be his normal hawkish self with regards to rates and the battle versus inflation – but not too hawkish.  Rates have crept higher recently (especially the... read more →
Aug 23

Sentiment No Longer a Tailwind

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its recent peak on 7/31. Corrections of this sort have been a remarkably frequent occurrence in the history of the stock market. Since January 1928, the S&P 500 index has suffered... read more →
Aug 18

On This Correction In Equities

As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this is happening right after excessive optimism once again gripped the market. Sentiment was abysmal in October of 2022 and close... read more →
Aug 16

The Dog Days of Summer

One question I am getting a lot now goes like this:  “With the market having had such a strong YTD so far, is it over?  Time to sell, time to take risk off the table?  When the market has a big first half is the party usually over?”  Legit question... read more →
Aug 14
Aug 10

Inflation Keeps Moderating

Fresh data released this morning points to continued progress on the inflation front. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), both the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its core version (which excludes the often-volatile food and energy components) increased by just 0.2% in July, a level that is... read more →