The rarest thing of all: today we had both a total lunar eclipse (technically it was a “blood moon”) and yours truly discussing election cycles and market returns. Rare or rarest? You pick.
There have 19 mid term elections in the post WWII era, with all 19 noting the S&P 500 higher 12 months later. If you go back 150 years (yep, years) and look at the best quarters of any presidential cycle (starting with inauguration day and ending with the following presidential election), the best three quarters of stock market returns look like the three quarters that immediately follow the mid-term election. Things can always change, but 19 for 19 is an impressive record. It’s also what you talk about when you want a break from the “all Fed all the time” news flow we’ve all experienced.
Great day to celebrate democracy. Vote early and, if you must, often. Enjoy.
Chief Investment Officer
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