The pain inflicted on high quality, long duration bonds Between March 2020 and December 2021, the US produced about $8 trillion in stimulus to economically battle the pandemic. Roughly half... read more →
New WebsiteWhat does behind the curve look like? The Federal Reserve is about to tighten monetary policy, i.e., raise rates, while high yield spreads are above their historical mean. They... read more →
Higher prices have led to tighter financial conditions. Mortgage rates up a lot, gasoline prices up a lot, UST yields higher, credit spreads wider. For the past five months, both the bond... read more →
As the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, the once red-hot housing market is starting to sputter. Based on data released this morning, only 5.41 million existing homes... read more →
The Fed can’t do anything about the supply of goods and services but does control the creation and destruction of economic demand. In 2020 and 2021 the Fed was creating... read more →
Elevated inflation and a Fed that is way too far behind the curve is where we find ourselves today. The Fed most likely will hike rates 75bps on Wednesday – it’s... read more →
It seems like no one is talking about the yield curve any more. During the last week of March, when the 10-2 year treasury spread inverted very briefly, roughly 3,800... read more →
Economist Milton Friedman and I have many things in common,. We both believe that inflation is driven by the excess supply of money. More dollars chasing the same amount of... read more →
A few takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Payroll employment with revisions increased +368k……still hotHousehold employment increased +320k……still hotUnemployment rate held at 3.6%…..near generational lows Nothing in this data is... read more →
Corporates insiders have an unusually good track record of timing their personal buys/sells. There’s a process around their trades and they do have to jump thru regulatory hoops and various... read more →
