“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We have discussed before many times that money supply growth drives... read more →
There are three consensus views I see right now in the market: US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate is a mess and will experience permanent loss/impairment The 4200... read more →
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing to a close. Even though this was the second consecutive... read more →
Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair. Not really a surprise that after getting way behind inflation in late 2021/most of... read more →
As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always seems to become. Inflation isn’t the problem it was six... read more →
Tomorrow brings the latest Federal Reserve decision, with another quarter-point hike viewed as a slam dunk – current market pricing shows a 93% probability of that outcome. That would bring... read more →
The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and overall financial conditions have tightened dramatically. We think we’re headed... read more →
“Money makes the world go ‘round - Still don’t nothing move but the money” – Cabaret the Musical (1990s revival) Money – and the growth of money supply – influences... read more →
More and more evidence is now pointing to the much-anticipated recession beginning to materialize over the next few months. Last Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed released its Philly Fed Manufacturing Index,... read more →
We hear this question a lot; and most of the time it is a foregone conclusion that we will revisit the 2022 stock market lows. War, recession, the Fed, regional... read more →
