This morning’s non-farm payroll report might have noted the weakest gain since April 2021 but there’s not enough damage in the labor market yet to cause the Fed to “pause”. ... read more →
We talk a lot about breadth because ‘participation’ to the upside is vital for a sustained move higher. We want to see the majority of troops following the general! Additionally,... read more →
Yesterday’s job openings (JOLTs) data notes a weakening in the labor market. Tighter financial conditions clearly starting to impact labor demand. Job openings fell by -1.1m openings, the single largest monthly decline... read more →
One of the commonly quoted measures of a recession is the ISM Manufacturing data going below a reading of 50. >50 means economic expansion and <50 means economic contraction. Yesterday’s ISM data... read more →
As we have discussed in prior communications, the Fed has been aggressively hiking interest rates in order to slow down the economy and get inflation under control, and it is... read more →
Another quarter is soon drawing to a close and investors will once again turn their focus to the latest corporate results. With the next round of news on inflation and... read more →
Fed chair Powell’s folly continues. It’s quite the body of work. First problem was doing nothing in 1Q22 as inflation was rising and the Fed kept money printing/bond buying. Second problem was... read more →
Pardon the reference to the great Earth, Wind and Fire lyrics but yesterday’s performance by Fed chair Powell was uber hawkish, lots of tough talk about rates and inflation and... read more →
As markets brace for the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow 2pm EST (+75bps overwhelming consensus…it’s already priced in and known), economic demand continues to be destroyed and inflation expectations are falling. Gold... read more →
The economic data released over the last couple of months has painted a picture of an economy that is holding up fairly well, all things considered. Surveys of manufacturing and... read more →
