As expected, our beloved elected officials waited until the very last moment and then cut a deal that does little... read more →
It seems like forever since we started talking about recession. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries (a.k.a. the... read more →
This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with... read more →
The Conference Board’s Survey of Consumer Confidence showed that consumers have grown even more pessimistic towards the stock market as... read more →
At two meetings I was in yesterday the topic of the current “narrow rally” was brought up. “Narrow rally” means... read more →
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We... read more →
There are three consensus views I see right now in the market: US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate... read more →
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing... read more →
Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair. Not really a surprise... read more →
As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always... read more →