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Aug 09

Bond market sending conflicting signals

The normally reliable US bond market is sending conflicting signals at the moment, adding to the confusion about whether the economy is currently in a recession, heading into a recession, or will achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession.  High quality bonds continue to send warning signals, with the... read more →
Aug 04

Why should I invest now?

Number #1 question being asked now sounds like this: “Why should I invest now?” The Fed is raising rates, recession risks have surged, economic demand is being destroyed, and volatility is both substantial and persistent. All reasonable reasons why not too invest – there’s plenty of cash on the sidelines... read more →
Aug 04

Energy companies thriving

Energy outperformance has cooled recently, which was to be expected after an historic run of outperformance from January to June. But this recent pullback was certainly not due to company fundamentals and sentiment which is under a major secular shift. Monitoring 2022 EPS growth we can see that S&P 500... read more →
Aug 03

Demand destruction #38: Softening labor market

Tougher/tighter financial conditions and an aggressive Fed still playing from behind with regards to rates and inflation are purposefully destroying economic demand.  Last week US housing data looked softer.  This week demand destruction is being felt in the labor market.  Just released job openings data (JOLTS) looks soft.  The summer... read more →
Aug 02

2Q Earnings Update

The S&P 500 index is roughly halfway through reporting season for 2Q results, with 282 companies out of 500 having reported results so far. Last week was the busiest week of the season, with 173 companies reporting results, including some of the largest names in the index such as Apple,... read more →
Jul 29
Jul 28

A recession like none other

This morning’s GDP report noted contraction for the second quarter in a row. We can debate inventory builds and trade imbalances and the math underlying the calculation of real GDP, but the official number says negative real GDP growth for a 2nd quarter in a row and the textbook defines... read more →
Jul 26
Jul 19
Jul 19