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Jul 12
Jul 05

High VIX = Good… Low VIX = Bad?

The VIX index, frequently referred to as “the Fear index”, is a widely followed measure of market volatility. It is derived from the prices of one-month call and put options on the S&P 500 index, providing us with a real time gauge of market participants’ expected volatility over the near... read more →
Jun 30

A look at where we have been

Eighteen months ago, the financial markets began their transition from a zero-interest world to a world of higher nominal and real yields.  The history books will have the final say, but those pages will likely include a chapter or two on how the global central banks printed nearly $8 trillion... read more →
Jun 27

Got inflation?

“Goods inflation” was the big story of 2020.  The pandemic happened, we tried to reopen the economy but factories weren’t open.  Lumber prices soared, container ships backed up at West Coast ports, 15-week backlog to get new home furniture.  Not enough goods – prices soared. “Service inflation” was the big... read more →
Jun 21
Jun 13
Jun 12
Jun 08

Price Leading Sentiment Again

The S&P 500 is up 20% from the October lows and predictably more and more investors are bullish on continued gains. Price leads sentiment. The latest AAII survey published yesterday shows the largest number of bulls in a year after a massive 15% jump to 44% from just the previous... read more →
Jun 07
Jun 05

Rents go lower as inflation goes slower

The CPI Index captures trends in consumer prices, the stuff that you and I all consume each day in various ways.  The CPI Index is roughly comprised of 40% housing costs, 20% for food costs, and 40% a catch-all of other expenses.  One big driver of CPI inflation in 2022... read more →