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Jun 27

Got inflation?

“Goods inflation” was the big story of 2020.  The pandemic happened, we tried to reopen the economy but factories weren’t open.  Lumber prices soared, container ships backed up at West Coast ports, 15-week backlog to get new home furniture.  Not enough goods – prices soared. “Service inflation” was the big... read more →
Jun 21
Jun 13
Jun 12
Jun 08

Price Leading Sentiment Again

The S&P 500 is up 20% from the October lows and predictably more and more investors are bullish on continued gains. Price leads sentiment. The latest AAII survey published yesterday shows the largest number of bulls in a year after a massive 15% jump to 44% from just the previous... read more →
Jun 07
Jun 05

Rents go lower as inflation goes slower

The CPI Index captures trends in consumer prices, the stuff that you and I all consume each day in various ways.  The CPI Index is roughly comprised of 40% housing costs, 20% for food costs, and 40% a catch-all of other expenses.  One big driver of CPI inflation in 2022... read more →
Jun 02
Jun 02

Recession Still Lies Ahead

It seems like forever since we started talking about recession. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries (a.k.a. the yield curve), one of the earliest indicators of recession, first inverted 14 months ago. In today’s world of fast-paced financials markets and news cycles, 14 months is forever. So, it... read more →
Jun 01

New S&P 500 Monthly Candle

This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with technicals being an important ‘building block’ in our investment process we thought it was important to share. And it’s all about monthly candles. Candles are a charting method to denote... read more →