Dec
07
The S&P 500 is currently down roughly 16% so far this year, which would make 2022 its worst calendar year since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and would also fall in the lowest decile of historical calendar year returns since the Great Depression (GD). So, to say that 2022 has...
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Dec
02
A better-than-expected jobs report this morning is sadly not what the market was/is looking for. Tough to describe this labor report as anything other than “tight”. +240k jobs after revisions for prior months, strong wage growth, low unemployment level, labor participation waning. It’s a strong jobs report across the board....
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Dec
01
Yesterday’s reaction to dovish comments from Fed chair Powell was most certainly welcomed by the markets. Big positive moves in risk assets and lower yields across the board. This wasn’t the end but, as Winston Churchill said, perhaps the end of the beginning of this extended period of market volatility....
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Dec
01
The 200-day moving average (ma) is no silver bullet; but as we reflect on price movement over the last few months it does provide us with pieces to the puzzle. The S&P 500 crossed below the 200-day moving average on April 8, 2022, and it remained there for over 7...
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Nov
28
Huge week for economic data – with all eyes pointing towards Friday’s labor report. Consensus estimates are calling for +200,000 job growth in Friday’s nonfarm payroll number. For the 54th time, “weak” now means “good”, i.e. labor weakness is the foundation for a Fed pivot on rate policy. Likely a...
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Nov
16
Over the past month or so, we’ve survived 3Q22 earnings season and a fairly major Fed announcement. Not small things in a year filled with volatility but both of those were good/ok. Corporate earnings have hung in reasonably well despite a lot of demand destruction this year by the Fed...
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Nov
15
Similar to last week’s CPI inflation data, this morning’s PPI inflation (producer price index) data noted similar softness. Markets like softness. Bad now equals good. PPI estimates for October were +.4% and the actual data came in at +.2%. Doesn’t seem like a big difference but it is, and the...
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Nov
11
How historic was the move in equities yesterday? The chart below shows the distribution of returns for the S&P 500 going back to 1962. The S&P 500 gain of 5.54% was only eclipsed 14 times in history which is .09% of daily returns. You don’t get many days like that!...
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Nov
10
This morning’s long-awaited CPI inflation data came in softer than expected and the market loves it. SP500 futures were positive +6pts heading into the 8:30am EST CPI inflation announcement – quickly traded at +94pts post inflation data release. In a market starved for good news, softer inflation is clearly being...
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Nov
09
I want to talk about market cycles and just how different and unusual the current one is. My apologies for the length of this email, but sometimes there’s no appropriate shortcut available…here goes. Market cycles have always followed a relatively consistent pattern. Times get good and the economy does well....
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