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Dec 07

The Great Valuation Reset (GVR)

The S&P 500 is currently down roughly 16% so far this year, which would make 2022 its worst calendar year since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and would also fall in the lowest decile of historical calendar year returns since the Great Depression (GD). So, to say that 2022 has... read more →
Dec 02

Labor report – “good means bad”

A better-than-expected jobs report this morning is sadly not what the market was/is looking for. Tough to describe this labor report as anything other than “tight”. +240k jobs after revisions for prior months, strong wage growth, low unemployment level, labor participation waning. It’s a strong jobs report across the board.... read more →
Dec 01

Chicago PMI data says recession imminent

Yesterday’s reaction to dovish comments from Fed chair Powell was most certainly welcomed by the markets. Big positive moves in risk assets and lower yields across the board. This wasn’t the end but, as Winston Churchill said, perhaps the end of the beginning of this extended period of market volatility.... read more →
Dec 01

Let’s talk 200 day MA

The 200-day moving average (ma) is no silver bullet; but as we reflect on price movement over the last few months it does provide us with pieces to the puzzle. The S&P 500 crossed below the 200-day moving average on April 8, 2022, and it remained there for over 7... read more →
Nov 28
Nov 16
Nov 15

Markets move based on the rate of change

Similar to last week’s CPI inflation data, this morning’s PPI inflation (producer price index) data noted similar softness. Markets like softness. Bad now equals good. PPI estimates for October were +.4% and the actual data came in at +.2%. Doesn’t seem like a big difference but it is, and the... read more →
Nov 11

What a day for equities

How historic was the move in equities yesterday? The chart below shows the distribution of returns for the S&P 500 going back to 1962. The S&P 500 gain of 5.54% was only eclipsed 14 times in history which is .09% of daily returns. You don’t get many days like that!... read more →
Nov 10

Flash note: CPI slipping, market goes ripping

This morning’s long-awaited CPI inflation data came in softer than expected and the market loves it. SP500 futures were positive +6pts heading into the 8:30am EST CPI inflation announcement – quickly traded at +94pts post inflation data release. In a market starved for good news, softer inflation is clearly being... read more →
Nov 09