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Jan 16

The Triple Threat: Part 1

In basketball, the “triple threat” position is a stance where the player can either pass, shoot, or dribble.  It’s a very athletic stance that creates options.  It’s the absolute cornerstone of basketball offense. In investing, the “triple threat” is the rare investing environment that exists when the Fed starts cutting... read more →
Dec 20

The Santa Pause Rally

The Santa Claus rally is a well-documented seasonal anomaly that sees the stock market produce abnormally high returns around the Christmas holiday. The term was coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In his original definition, the rally covered the period between Christmas day and... read more →
Dec 15

2024 Earnings Outlook

As we approach the turn of the calendar, we take a look back at how S&P 500 earnings fared this year, and a look ahead at what is in store for next year. The chart below shows the earnings growth rate estimates for both 2023 and 2024, for the S&P... read more →
Dec 14

VIX Confirming The Bull Market

Investment professionals usually talk about the VIX index as a ‘fear gauge’. That is due to the fact that volatility picks up during bear markets, and that is what the VIX really measures; volatility in the S&P 500. Rising volatility is a feature of bear markets until the S&P experiences... read more →
Dec 07
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Nov 28
Nov 20

L-E-I says we’re in R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N

Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs. inflation the US economy has held up very, very while.  Double checking our model here against a well-proven external source:  the Senior Lending Officer Opinion Survey. The survey of leading... read more →
Nov 15

The Non-Magnificent 493

A lot of ink is being spilled writing about the Magnificent 7, the seven largest stocks by market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. That is not surprising given the rollercoaster ride they have been on over the last two years. After suffering a nearly 40% drawdown from the S&P... read more →
Nov 14

Markets Like Lower Inflation

The latest CPI inflation report was just released this morning, and so far it’s put markets in a very good mood.  The details were certainly encouraging with headline inflation flat month over month, and up only 3.2% year over year.  Core CPI was only 0.2% higher on the month and... read more →