Large without Sidebar

Mar 23

I never forget an anniversary

Today marks the 3-year anniversary of the COVID market low:  March 23, 2020. Three years ago today, mankind, civilization and global markets were reeling from the onset of COVID.  The daily images of illness and death were real and shocking.  The global economy had been purposefully shuttered.  Markets were collapsing... read more →
Mar 22
Mar 21

“March Madness”

The events of the past 10 days – including the collapse of Silicon  Valley Bank and the extraordinary measures enacted by the Fed to protect/quasi guarantee deposits of any shape or size – has resulted in above-average market volatility (which I think after 15 months of such we are all... read more →
Mar 15
Mar 13
Mar 09

Renewed Fed Hawkishness Raises Recession Risk

As much as Fed Chair Jerome Powell may claim that the Fed is not trying to push the economy into recession, it is becoming increasingly likely that their fight against inflation will produce that exact result. Following a series of stronger than expected economic data prints over the last couple... read more →
Mar 02
Mar 01

Final Observations from 4Q Earnings Season

With 475 companies (96% of market capitalization) of the S&P 500 index having reported 4Q 2022 results, the earnings season is officially drawing to a close. As expected, 4Q 2022 was the first quarter to record negative year-over-year earnings growth since 3Q 2020, with earnings declining by 4.9% compared to... read more →
Feb 24

It’s been a long three years…

Three years ago, this week, the world was hit by the onset of the COVID pandemic.  Levels of serious illness started to spike and global markets recoiled accordingly.  That truly seems like a million years ago.  One year ago, the war in Ukraine started.  Neither of these are happy anniversaries,... read more →
Feb 22

Inflation remains a monetary phenomenon

Supply and demand drives inflation, including the supply and demand of money itself.  Why did inflation spike in early 2022?  Because we had record money supply growth in BOTH 2020 and 2021 combined with a Fed unwilling/late to act with regards to rate hikes.  The M2 chart below captures the... read more →