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Sep 13

Does this look like runaway, uncontrolled inflation to you?

Lots of attention this morning to CPI inflation headlines. Energy running hot on low inventory levels, used cars continue to drift lower in price, shelter costs a mixed bag. IGNORE ALL OF IT. The thing to focus on is the favorite inflation measure often quoted by Fed chair Powell: core PCE... read more →

September 13, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Sep 12

Back to school, back to basics – “it’s earnings that drive stock prices”

It’s this week’s inflation data that is probably the headline to focus on, if one is into focusing on headlines. The bond market is currently saying the chances of a September Fed hike are +/-10% but weak inflation data later this week will give a read into the potential of... read more →

September 12, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Sep 07

Three chart Thursday is here!!!

Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!! LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 - Temporary job growth rolling over: A deeper dive into last Friday’s non-farm-payroll data noted that temporary jobs appear to have peaked and are now rolling over. History says first temporary... read more →

September 7, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Aug 29

Jackson Hole recap – It gets very tricky from here

Fed chair Powell performed roughly “as expected” at Jackson Hole on Friday. Lots of progress to date against inflation. Inflation is going down, but it remains elevated. The path forward is going to be data dependent and the Fed will hike if they need to hike. Everything in life is... read more →

August 29, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Aug 24

Powell’s last stand: a Jackson Hole preview

Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole. It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets. I expect Powell to be his normal hawkish self with regards to rates and the battle versus inflation – but not too hawkish. Rates have crept higher recently (especially the... read more →

August 24, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Aug 23

Sentiment No Longer a Tailwind

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its recent peak on 7/31. Corrections of this sort have been a remarkably frequent occurrence in the history of the stock market. Since January 1928, the S&P 500 index has suffered... read more →

August 23, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Aug 18

On This Correction In Equities

As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this is happening right after excessive optimism once again gripped the market. Sentiment was abysmal in October of 2022 and close... read more →

August 18, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Aug 16

The Dog Days of Summer

One question I am getting a lot now goes like this: “With the market having had such a strong YTD so far, is it over? Time to sell, time to take risk off the table? When the market has a big first half is the party usually over?” Legit question... read more →

August 16, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Aug 14

“The Big Short” of the summer of 2023

The US economy continues to hang in there just fine but inflationary data on many fronts continues to fall and the bond market is pricing in just a 10% probability of a Fed rate hike come September. So, with the Fed near done with rate hikes and Fed chair Powell... read more →

August 14, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Aug 10

Inflation Keeps Moderating

Fresh data released this morning points to continued progress on the inflation front. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), both the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its core version (which excludes the often-volatile food and energy components) increased by just 0.2% in July, a level that is... read more →

August 10, 2023
CWM Investment Team