Large without Sidebar – Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions

Mar 23

I never forget an anniversary

Today marks the 3-year anniversary of the COVID market low: March 23, 2020. Three years ago today, mankind, civilization and global markets were reeling from the onset of COVID. The daily images of illness and death were real and shocking. The global economy had been purposefully shuttered. Markets were collapsing... read more →

March 23, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Mar 22

Yields spike so the Fed will hike…and Fed chair Powell better throw a strike

Over the course of the past 24hrs, odds have dramatically increased that the Fed will hike by +25bps at 2pm today. 2y UST yields two weeks ago were 5.2%. Those quickly fell to 3.8% when Silicon Valley Bank imploded but 2y UST yields have been on the rise the past... read more →

March 22, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Mar 21

“March Madness”

The events of the past 10 days – including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the extraordinary measures enacted by the Fed to protect/quasi guarantee deposits of any shape or size – has resulted in above-average market volatility (which I think after 15 months of such we are all... read more →

March 21, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Mar 15

What Is Clear Is The Message From The Bond Market

There is certainly a lot happening in the financial markets right now. It is more important than ever during times like this to step back and focus on what we do know. And the clearest messenger right now is the bond market. We have discussed the 10-2-year treasury yield curve... read more →

March 15, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Mar 13

The demise of SVB and thoughts on where we go from here

The death of the nation’s 16th largest bank was both swift and shocking and the events of the past few days as it relates to the bank run that went down at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has implications for both policy and markets. There are few knowns so far and... read more →

March 13, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Mar 09

Renewed Fed Hawkishness Raises Recession Risk

As much as Fed Chair Jerome Powell may claim that the Fed is not trying to push the economy into recession, it is becoming increasingly likely that their fight against inflation will produce that exact result. Following a series of stronger than expected economic data prints over the last couple... read more →

March 9, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Mar 02

Cracks are emerging in low-quality consumer credit

Retail sales remain strong, unemployment claims remain low, and broadly speaking economic growth as measured by consumption and GDP is solid. That’s the good news. The bad news is that some cracks are starting to emerge in consumer lending. Subprime auto loans is lending to those with the worst credit... read more →

March 2, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Mar 01

Final Observations from 4Q Earnings Season

With 475 companies (96% of market capitalization) of the S&P 500 index having reported 4Q 2022 results, the earnings season is officially drawing to a close. As expected, 4Q 2022 was the first quarter to record negative year-over-year earnings growth since 3Q 2020, with earnings declining by 4.9% compared to... read more →

March 1, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Feb 24

It’s been a long three years…

Three years ago, this week, the world was hit by the onset of the COVID pandemic. Levels of serious illness started to spike and global markets recoiled accordingly. That truly seems like a million years ago. One year ago, the war in Ukraine started. Neither of these are happy anniversaries,... read more →

February 24, 2023
CWM Investment Team

Feb 22

Inflation remains a monetary phenomenon

Supply and demand drives inflation, including the supply and demand of money itself. Why did inflation spike in early 2022? Because we had record money supply growth in BOTH 2020 and 2021 combined with a Fed unwilling/late to act with regards to rate hikes. The M2 chart below captures the... read more →

February 22, 2023
CWM Investment Team