As expected, our beloved elected officials waited until the very last moment and then cut a deal that does little for the budget but does avert a financial calamity. I... read more →
It seems like forever since we started talking about recession. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries (a.k.a. the yield curve), one of the earliest indicators of recession, first... read more →
This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with technicals being an important ‘building block’ in our investment process... read more →
The Conference Board’s Survey of Consumer Confidence showed that consumers have grown even more pessimistic towards the stock market as the percentage expecting higher stock prices declined to 28.6% while... read more →
At two meetings I was in yesterday the topic of the current “narrow rally” was brought up. “Narrow rally” means just a few mega cap stocks going up a lot... read more →
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We have discussed before many times that money supply growth drives... read more →
There are three consensus views I see right now in the market: US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate is a mess and will experience permanent loss/impairment The 4200... read more →
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing to a close. Even though this was the second consecutive... read more →
Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair. Not really a surprise that after getting way behind inflation in late 2021/most of... read more →
As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always seems to become. Inflation isn’t the problem it was six... read more →
